Republicans are making significant strides in early voting, narrowing the gap with Democrats that has persisted in recent elections, according to political strategist Jimmy Keady. Data from key battleground states like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania indicate a marked decrease in the Democratic lead in vote-by-mail requests—a development that could benefit the GOP and former President Donald Trump heading into 2024.
Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, highlighted the shift as a promising sign for Republicans. “It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Keady told Fox News Digital. The shrinking Democratic advantage in mail-in voting, particularly in Pennsylvania (down over 35%), North Carolina (nearly 15%), and Florida (over 5%), suggests a changing dynamic in voter behavior.
Keady explained that encouraging early and mail-in voting allows campaigns to focus resources on engaging lower-propensity voters—those who are less likely to vote without targeted outreach. This strategy can be crucial in tight races, particularly in swing states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where the margins are expected to be razor-thin.
The shift comes as both parties ramp up efforts to turn out their base ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, while Trump leads slightly in North Carolina, according to recent polling averages. These states are set to play a pivotal role, with ground game tactics potentially determining the outcome.
Keady also noted that the Republican base’s growing acceptance of early voting as a secure method of casting ballots is pivotal for the party’s strategy. “It definitely signals that there’s turnout… and also that the base has adopted early voting as a proper and mostly secure way to vote,” Keady said.
With the GOP catching up in early and mail-in voting, Keady believes Republicans are better positioned to compete in areas where they were disadvantaged in 2020. The focus now, he says, is on convincing the base to utilize these voting methods to ensure strong turnout.